The NBA’s Modern Style of Play and Increased Reliance on the 3-point Shot: Impact on NBA Fan Engagement

Abstract

This paper explores how the National Basketball Association’s (NBA) modern style of play and increased reliance on the 3-point shot has impacted fan engagement over time. I hypothesized that fans are less engaged now than 10 years ago due to changes in the NBA game, making it more predictable. I used descriptive research, specifically a self-reported satisfaction survey study of 376 avid NBA fans. I utilized convenience sampling to select subjects to participate via my social media channels and measured engagement using three variables: level of excitement, level of interest, and the number of games watched. The survey results showed that NBA fans find NBA games to be too predictable, less exciting, and watched fewer NBA games this past season than 10 years ago, reflecting less interest in the game. Finally, fans believed that 3-point shooting was the most important skill in the NBA, and recommended that the 3-point line be moved further away from the basket. From a fan engagement perspective, this study considered the impact of changes to the NBA game and possible rules modifications that would lessen what has become an over-reliance on the 3-point shot. Future research could investigate the fan response to making the rules changes needed to return the NBA to a more traditional style of play by testing some of these suggested rules changes in the NBA minor league (The G League).

Keywords: NBA, fan engagement, the 3-point shot, viewership

Introduction and Background

The Big Business of Sports

The North American Sports Market is big business, having grown from almost $50 billion to $70 billion between 2010 and 2018, an expansion of more than 40%. The market consists of revenue within four key segments driven by customer or fan demand: media rights[1], gate revenue[2], sponsorships[3], and merchandising[4] in the big five sports leagues: the National Football League (NFL), the National Basketball Association (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), Major League Soccer (MLS), and the National Hockey League (NHL) (Pepitone, Schwartz & York, 2019, p.2). The big five sports leagues compete aggressively for these fans, and constantly evaluate their brands and strategies to win over and engage them. The NBA, however, has a problem. It has seen an erosion of its fan engagement, a trend that I believe could be the result of excessive 3-point[5] shooting caused by teams’ reliance on data analytics. While utilized to simply help teams optimize game strategy, analytics clearly established that 3-point shots were so advantageous that as a result of their increased use, games have evolved from suspenseful to predictable. Fan engagement has suffered, and this problem, in turn, threatens NBA viewership vital to the health of this major sports league.

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[1] Media Rights: The contract rights to exhibit sports on venues such as television networks, radio, digital, and mobile (Pepitone, Schwartz & York, 2019,p.2).

[2] Gate Revenue: Revenue generated from ticket sales for live sports events (Pepitone, Schwartz & York, 2019,p.2).

[3] Sponsorship: The cost of a brand association with a sports team, league, stadium, or event (may also naming rights) (Pepitone, Schwartz & York, 2019,p.2).

[4] Merchandising: The sale of licensed products which include logos, player likenesses, or other intellectual property (Pepitone, Schwartz & York, 2019,p.2).

[5] 3-point shot: In the NBA, players earn an extra point for making shots behind the 3-point line. The distance of the line is 23’ 9” (22’ at corners) away from the basket (NBA.com).

Avid Sports Fans

A recent study in the Journal of Communication and Sport on sports fanship explained that those who self-identify as fans exhibit passion, enjoy following sports despite their favorite team’s outcome, and often share their experience on social media to enrich their experiences (van Driel, Gantz, & Lewis, 2018). Researchers have defined fan avidity as “the level of interest, involvement, passion, and loyalty a fan exhibits to a particular sports entity” (DeSarbo, 2009, p.13). Superfans tend to have an emotional connection with their favorite league, team, or athlete, which ultimately leads to increased investment in their relationship with a specific sports brand. Furthermore, avid fans spend significantly more time, money, and energy on sports-related pursuits than non-avid fans (DeSarbo, 2009). It is logical that the NBA, as a business, wants to grow its avid fan base, continually finding ways to retain and recruit these types of fans into their ranks and then constantly engage them.

The NBA Game Experience

The NBA came into existence shortly after the Great Depression but did not see significant growth until the 1980s, when it reached a record number of fans through increased television viewership on cable networks and enjoyed record-breaking attendance at arenas. The NBA currently has 30 teams and plays an 82 game regular season schedule, followed by a playoff series ending with an NBA Finals in June (Mokray, Logan, & Donald, 2020). NBA games offer a model of fan engagement. Each game consists of four 12-minute periods, with 2:30 breaks between the first and second and third and fourth periods, and 15-minute halftime (NBA.com). The average NBA game duration in the 2018–19 season was 2:14:39, inclusive of timeouts, fouls, and other clock stoppages (Sprung, 2018). These games have come to include numerous 3-point shots. According to Kirk Goldsberry, the author of SprawlBall: A Visual Tour of the New Era of the NBA, there were 25,807 3-pointers made during the 2017–2018 season, which is more than the number of 3-pointers made during the 1980s. (Ch.7, para.2).

The 3-Point Revolution

NBA fans have witnessed history, not only in the game of basketball but in the entirety of sports. According to Abraham Gibson (2019), researcher of cultural influences of data science, sports analytics has had a profound impact on the NBA game and has spawned “the 3-point revolution” (p.3). Gibson (2019) frames this as one of very few revolutions in the history of sports. The first occurred when high jumper Dick Fosbury introduced his famous “Fosbury flop” in the 1968 Olympics utilizing a headfirst and back-to-the-bar technique in an international competition; setting an Olympic record and forever changing the sport of track and field. The second revolution in sport was the introduction of the “soccer-style” kick in football, popularized by Pete Gogolak, replacing the then standard direct toe kick with longer and more

accurate results for NFL placekickers. The third revolution is, of course, the growth of the 3-point shot adopted by the NBA, cultivated by data and sports analytics (Gibson, 2019).

Moneyball

Analytics altered the sports world around the turn of the century, when Billy Beane, the General Manager (GM) of MLB’s Oakland Athletics, began using statistics to identify and recruit undervalued players. This strategy would later become known as the “Moneyball theory,” which allowed his small-market franchise to exceed traditional expectations by winning four division titles. After a great deal of skepticism, the rest of the league caught on and adopted some of these Moneyball techniques. (UW Data Science Team, 2016).

Moneyball, Michael Lewis’s best-selling book, which chronicled Billy Beane’s use of analytics, triggered a chain of events that have transformed the NBA (Lewis, 2003). The NBA is generally known as the league that most enthusiastically embraced analytics to make decisions on and off the court. Lewis’ coined term “Moneyball,” denoting the strategic use of sports analytics to drive decisions, led to an NBA spin-off term, “Moreyball,” the basketball analytics era ushered in by the Houston Rockets’ former GM, Daryl Morey.

Data-Driven Management in the NBA

When Morey took over as the GM of the Rockets in 2006, a seismic shift began in the NBA. Morey was a trained management consultant with an MBA. According to Lewis, Morey would change how decisions were made in the NBA, from an art relying on intuition to a science relying mainly on data analysis. Morey was “the first of his kind: the basketball nerd king” (Lewis, 2016, p.5). As a result of Morey’s success, the league became more data-driven as teams devoted full-time staff to sports analytics, assisted by the arrival of new technology to undertake data-driven personnel moves. All 30 NBA arenas were wired with SportVU cameras for the 2013–2014 season, which tracked and recorded every player’s movement during every game (Maese, 2013). The resulting analytics proved beyond doubt that the teams with players who could shoot 3-pointers well would benefit.

The Rise of the 3-Point Shot

In Sprawlbawl, Goldsberry explains that the 3-point line changed the game of basketball more than any other rule in the sport’s history. In 1979, the NBA decided to paint a line through the shooting zone and make shots beyond that line worth fifty percent more than shots inside the line (2019). Goldsberry, a journalist with the unique combination of a Ph.D. in geography and cartography, was positioned to combine his NBA fandom and his passion for maps (Prince, 2019). He plotted five seasons of shooting data with over one million shots, discovered some groundbreaking information by calculating the average points per shot according to the shot location, and saw the shocking incentive for shooting the 3-point shot. Shots between 21 and 22 feet go in 39 percent of the time but were worth only two points; however, shots between 22 and 23 feet with 38 percent accuracy were worth three points. Analytics dictated that players take three-point shots, and teams were incentivized to sign good shooters. The NBA evolution has been dramatic. In the 2001–02 season, the Lakers won their third consecutive NBA championship with their ultimate 7' 1'’ Center and Finals MVP, Shaquille O’Neal, during a year in which NBA shooters attempted only 18.1 percent of their shots from the 3-point range. Flash forward to 2017–18, when the Warriors won their third championship with the ultimate shooting guard and first-ever unanimous MVP, Stephen Curry, and an astounding 33.6 percent of all shots were being taken from beyond the 3-point line (2019, Intro, Map). This fundamental change not only had an impact on the court but on the fans who watched it all unfold.

The Evolution of the NBA Big Man

With the rise of the 3-point shot, the last two decades in the NBA have seen tremendous changes, including transformations in the types of lineups and personnel best suited to the new game. According to Goldberry, since long-range shooting has become the most valued skill in the NBA, the only centers succeeding in today’s game are those that can shoot and defend on the perimeter. While other rules changes over the decades, such as eliminating goaltending[6] and introducing the 3-second rule,[7] had somewhat marginalized the center’s role, it was the introduction of the three-point line that completely devalued their position and skillset (Goldsberry, 2019, Ch.7). The 3-point shot effectively transformed the game, as more three-pointers meant less of everything else and subsequently impacted the fan experience.

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[6] Basketball interference including when a player touches the ball during a viable field goal attempt, after the ball has touched the backboard above the ring, on its upward or downward flight. The penalty includes awarding the points which would have resulted (2 or 3 depending on zone) (NBA.com).

[7] An offensive player (team has the basket) cannot stay in the 3-second lane under the basket for more than three seconds.. That player has to move toward the hoop before time is up or an offensive 3-second call is made.. If the player attempts to interfere with the defensive player illegally, an offensive foul is called (NBA.com).

Literature Review

There has been a variety of research conducted on the factors that are predictive of fan engagement. Sports fans are influenced by competitive games and leagues, the desire to see superstars play in person or on television, and a strong preference for an unpredictable game experience. For decades, NBA fans have expressed their displeasure with the NBA game, and the league has responded with rules changes to address various complaints such as slow play, low-scoring, or physical dominance of big men under the basket. These rules changes combined with the influence of analytics have resulted in major strategic and aesthetic changes in the game.

A History of Rules Changes

The NBA has a history of making smart business decisions. In The Journal of Sports and Games, Nourayi (2020) conducts a historical review of how the league has carefully monitored spectator reactions to game trends and responded by periodically changing the rules to appeal to their fans. In the 1950s, big man George Mikan dominated on defense resulting in fewer baskets and lower scores, making games less enjoyable for fans. League president Maurice Podoloff, convinced this was an affront to the fans and basketball itself and to make sure professional basketball was fun and exciting for its fans, changed the rules to widen the lane under the basket, thereby hampering huge centers while allowing smaller players to score more easily. In 2001, the NBA again responded to fan criticism about game flow and slow pace by instituting various rules changes, including a defensive 3-second rule and the redefinition of defensive fouling to keep the game entertaining (Nourayi, 2020, pp.4–7).

Competitive Balance and Game Uncertainty

Various studies have focused on the impact of competitive balance on fan engagement experiences, including game attendance (Sung, S.H., Hong, D., & Yul, S.Y., 2020; Coates & Humphreys, 2010). In 1956, Simon Rottenberg pioneered the idea that “uncertainty of outcome is necessary if the consumer is to be willing to pay admission to the game (p.246).” Wen-Jhan Jane’s 2014 study tests the prediction of the uncertainty outcome hypothesis, which assumes that “close games attract more spectators due to the uncertainty of the final result. (p.178)” The study looks at competitive balance (CB), which is the “degree of uncertainty in a league that is composed of members that are relatively competitive in terms of strength,” as well as game uncertainty (GU) which is the “degree of uncertainty dependent of the relative capabilities of two teams that are competing to win a game (p.178)”. Jane concludes that more uncertainty in a league in terms of what team will emerge as the champion can increase fan interest and fan attendance (p.198). Daniel Rasher and John Solmes (2007) similarly determined that fans want competitive games with uncertain outcomes. Their research focused on hometown fans’ preference for home team wins while maintaining CB and maximizing attendance and, therefore, revenue (Rascher and Solmes, 2007).

Star Power

Rascher and Solmes also discussed the star effect on attendance by examining the 1996–97 Championship Chicago Bulls. The Bulls sold out every game of that season, despite dominating most of their opponents based on the high demand to see Michael Jordan, whom many NBA fans consider the greatest NBA player of all time (2007). In contrast to Jane’s (2014) study, the researchers theorized that the star effect outweighed the uncertainty of outcome effect. However, they added that this theory might not hold if that star effect dominance continued for too long and resulted in NBA games or even entire NBA seasons became boring and predictable (Rascher and Solmes). Likewise, in an econometric analysis published in the Journal of Labor Economics, Jerry Hausman and Gregory Leonard (1997 ) found the superstar effect on television ratings was powerful. Their research reported a significant increase in national television ratings on NBC after studying Nielson data from three NBA seasons (1990–91 through 1992–93), finding, “the Bulls/Jordan have a large effect on ratings, increasing the NBC rating by 36%. The Celtics with Bird and the Lakers with Johnson were also strong draws for viewers, increasing the NBC rating by 36% and 19% respectively (p.19)”.

Ratings Declines

While star power increased ratings in the 1990s, according to Hausman and Leonard (1997), NBA viewership is currently in decline despite the plethora of superstars on the court, such as LeBron James and Stephen Curry. In fact, the NBA has seen its viewership decline to lows not seen since the 1980s. While COVID-19 has negatively impacted the past year, this trend predates the pandemic, and other leagues did not experience the same decline. Specifically, “Since 2012 the NFL went from a 16.2 million-person average on nationally televised games to a 16.5 million last season. The MLB…went from 2.5 million viewers on network TV in 2012 versus 2.4 million in 2019. (Strauss, 2020, p.4)” While there are many theories as to why ratings have declined, including the rise of three-pointers, some believe audiences are flocking online to view highlights. New technology offerings on digital and mobile are more attractive platforms for many fans. Younger fans tend to want flexible and personalized experiences. However, the quality of the content will always be paramount as fans will expect a fun and exciting experience (Evens, 2017).

Analytics, Aesthetics, and Tradition

In Sprawlbawl, Goldberry effectively argues for a return to the NBA’s traditional style contending “the game is now as aesthetically monotonous as it was back when Mikan and Russell clogged up the interior. The Moneyball monoculture is here, ladies and gentlemen, and let me tell you, it’s not FAN-tastic” (Ch.7, Current). Goldsberry suggests this can only be solved by a proactive change, preventing the NBA from turning into a jump-shooting contest that will continue to bore fans. When the NBA added the 3-point line in 1979, it was viewed as a gimmick comprising only 3% of all shots. By 2018, players were taking 34% of their shots from three-point range. He laments that the NBA league office, unlike years past, has failed to make any rules changes that would help counteract the extreme transformation that has taken place. Goldsberry makes several recommendations, including moving the 3-point line back, which would help restore the game to a more aesthetically pleasing and entertaining fan experience (2019, Ch. 7, Changes).

These scholars examine fan engagement in the NBA from various angles, researching how CB, GU, star players, rules changes, and analytics have altered the NBA game: changing the look, physicality, and entertainment value. The result has been a change in the style of play and an increased reliance on the 3-point shot, which I believe has negatively impacted fan engagement due to the game becoming more predictable. My research examines how changes to the NBA game, specifically a shift to outside shooting may have affected fans. However, no publicly accessible research is available to explain how NBA fans have reacted to this phenomenon. Therefore, I felt this was an important informational gap to address. In my research, I decided to conduct a survey study of NBA fans to determine how the NBA’s modern style of play and increased reliance on the 3-point shot has impacted fan engagement over time.

Method

Experimental Design

I used descriptive research, specifically a survey study, to collect data on the impact of the NBA’s modern style of play and increased reliance on the 3-point shot on NBA fan engagement over the past ten years. I chose a self-reported satisfaction survey to undertake my research due to time constraints, sample availability, and, most importantly, to efficiently document and assess changes in fan opinions and satisfaction over a 10-year time span. I created a 23-question survey utilizing Survey Monkey, designed to require approximately five minutes to complete. The survey consisted of multiple-choice questions and a series of closed-ended questions with a five-point Likert scale to measure the participant’s opinions on a series of qualitative topics. I also included an opportunity for respondents to input their additional thoughts at the end of the survey. I hypothesized that NBA fans are less engaged now as compared to 10 years ago. Three self-reported variables measured engagement: level of excitement, level of interest, and viewership or the number of games watched.

Subject Acquisition and Sample

When determining the sample size for my study, I first looked at the population of NBA fans. According to a Public Policy Polling survey, 36% of U.S. registered voters consider themselves fans of the NBA (Gains, 2016). That would represent about 86 million people over the age of 18 in the U.S. This is a vast population that requires a sufficient sample size. According to Leedy and Ormond (2019), when a population size exceeds 5000, a sample size of 400 is adequate (p. 179). Therefore, my study targeted a sample of 400 respondents. I used convenience sampling to select subjects to participate via my social media channels,[8] and I acquired the respondents over a period of four weeks. The survey was anonymous, but IP addresses were tracked to verify that each participant would complete the survey only once. The IRB approved my research, and I followed all ethical guidelines.

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[8] My social media channels included Snapchat, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. I have approximately 150,000 subscribers across all of these platforms.

Survey and Procedure

I posted a “call to action” with the link to Survey Monkey on my social media channels and via email. The consent document was the first page of my survey and contained the stated criteria for participation, which were: 1) Self identify as an avid fan of the NBA 2) Watched at least one live NBA game or footage of an NBA game online over the last 12 months and 3) Be over the age of 18.

Results

Sample Demographics

There were a total of 405 respondents to the survey. However, seven participants did not properly consent, and an additional 22 respondents were disqualified due to age or not being an avid NBA fan, resulting in a revised, final sample of 376.

79.73% of respondents were male, 19.73% female, .27% non-binary, and .27% preferred not to say. The respondents ranged in age between 18 and 70, the mean was 28, and the standard deviation was 9.8. 96.54% of the respondents resided in the US, 2.93% in Canada, and .53% elsewhere. 78.13% of respondents had previously played organized basketball, with the majority reporting to have played in high school (54.13%).

Level of Excitement

Respondents described and compared their level of excitement with NBA games and playoff games this past season vs. 10 years ago in a series of questions which yielded the following results:

● 19% of respondents believed that an NBA game was exciting or very exciting to watch this past season.

● 65% of respondents believed that an NBA game was exciting or very exciting to watch 10 years ago.

● 51% of respondents believed that an NBA playoff game was exciting or very exciting to watch this past season.

● 83% of respondents believed that an NBA playoff game was exciting or very exciting to watch 10 years ago.

In an additional question, 67% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that NBA games now are less exciting than they were 10 years ago, as shown in Figure 1:

Those who agreed or strongly agreed with the statement were prompted to identify which factors contributed to their belief, see results in Figure 2:

Interest and Viewership

Of the fans surveyed, 29% were interested or very interested in the NBA regular season, while 79% were interested or very interested in the NBA playoffs.

Fans were asked how many games of their favorite NBA team’s typical season they watched last year (Figure 3) versus 10 years ago (Figure 4).

Opinions on Changes in the Game

75% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that NBA centers have a less prominent role, see Figure 5:

67% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that 3-point shooting is the most important skill in the NBA, see Figure 6:

62% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that the 3-point line should be moved back, see Figure 7:

In the last question of the survey, fans were asked to “share any other thoughts about your NBA fandom.” 38% of survey respondents chose to respond to this optional question, see results in Table 1:

Discussion

I examined fans’ satisfaction with the NBA now vs. 10 years ago to contrast how many games fans watched this past season compared to 10 years ago. This was an approximation but offered a window into the avid fan’s mindset. On average, 31% of respondents watched more than half but not all or all of their favorite teams’ 82 game season 10 years ago. However, only 19% of respondents watched more than half but not all or all of their favorite teams’ 82 game season last year, representing a significant decrease of nearly 39% in the highest watched categories (see Figures 3 and 4). This finding is consistent with and supported by massive declines in NBA television ratings over the past decade. The NBA’s 2019–20 games on ABC, its premiere broadcast partner, were down 45% on average from its 2011–2012 season (Strauss, 2020). Furthermore, as Evens pointed out in his Journal of Digital Television article, the value of live sports lies in its ability to deliver fun and excitement to viewers (2017). As those dynamics decrease, viewership will also decrease.

To measure excitement, I explicitly asked how fans felt about the following statement: NBA games are less exciting now than they were 10 years ago. 67% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with this statement, and they were immediately prompted to identify factors that contributed to this belief. 51% attributed NBA games being too predictable as a factor contributing to that belief (see Figure 2). This finding is aligned with the conclusion of Jane’s study (2014) that CB and GU were essential to maintaining fan engagement. A fan’s desire for a close contest is consistent with a fan’s desire for in-game unpredictability, not just in terms of score but also in terms of offensive variety. As the 3-point shot has become increasingly dominant (now approximately 40% of all NBA shots are 3-pointers), fans are aware of the game strategy, which makes the game predictable and for many fans, makes the NBA less exciting.

My survey revealed that a majority of fans felt games were too predictable, likely as a result of the lack of offensive variety, and consistent with declining excitement levels. It was not surprising to learn that 67% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that 3-point shooting was now the most important skill in the NBA. Furthermore, 62% agreed or strongly agreed that the 3-point line should be moved farther away from the basket (Figure 7). As noted by Nourayi (2020), NBA rules changes are intended to enhance both the popularity and the excitement of the game as well as increase the fan’s support. Therefore, moving the 3-point line back would be a logical rule change to improve engagement. Moreover, Sprawlbawl author Goldsberry asks, “Do we, the NBA fans, really prefer watching all of these catch-and-shoot threes and the players who take them more than the kinds of plays they are replacing? Is the spectacle of NBA basketball slowly getting better or worse?” (2020, Intro) Judging from the results of my survey, I would conclude that the consensus is that fans believe that NBA basketball is less exciting and interesting as they do not want predictability. Fans also recommended moving the 3-point shot back and offered comments supportive of this finding in the open-ended question of the survey suggesting, “It’s time to move the three-point line back a few feet. The shot starts to lose its luster and starts to wear off a bit when you watch players bomb 70 of them in a game. What happens when that goes to 100?”

When fans were asked to “share any other thoughts about your NBA fandom” (see Table 1), a significant trend in the data was a mention of legendary or iconic stars (31%) from the past, such as Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson. One fan remarked, “I miss the power and physical play of the 90s. Teams like the Bulls were great. Michael Jordan dunking and driving to the hoop. He was the GOAT.” Another fan said, “The NBA was much more interesting to watch when legends like Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, and Larry Bird were on the court. They didn’t rely on the three. They could do everything and it was never boring.” These fans were engaged and entertained by superstars, consistent with Hausman and Leonard’s (1997) study. Additionally, they seemed to prefer the traditional style of play before the 3-point shot and analytics so remarkably changed the game.

Conclusions, Limitations, and Future Study

My purpose was to explore how NBA fans have responded to changes in the game over the past decade. Using a self-reported satisfaction survey study, I attempted to answer my research question: Has the NBA analytics-driven modern style of play and increased reliance on the 3-point shot impacted fan engagement?

The NBA engages fans in numerous ways, ranging from attending live games, watching live game broadcasts, viewing game highlights, or following popular players on social media. While it has been difficult to isolate any single factor responsible for impacting fan engagement over the past decade, the results of my survey show that the analytics-driven modern style of play and increased use of the 3-point shot have in fact dramatically affected how fans view and experience the game.

One revealing finding of the survey was that a majority of NBA fans believe NBA games are less exciting now than they were 10 years ago, and many of those respondents attribute that belief to games having become too predictable. This finding is consistent with the conclusion of Jane’s (2014) study that CB and GU were important in maintaining fan engagement. But uncertainty has taken on a broader meaning: while inherent in the score and outcome of every game, it may have been compromised by far too predictable game strategy, as 3-point shots have come to comprise nearly one-half of all shots taken.

Additionally, fans surveyed watched fewer NBA games this past season compared to 10 years ago, reflecting a decline in both fan interest and fan engagement in the NBA game. This is contrary to Rasher and Solmes’s (2007) research on the star effect, as there are arguably more prominent NBA stars today than at any point in NBA history. Furthermore, my survey results may disprove their theory that the star effect outweighs the uncertainty of the outcome effect. In this case, the 3-point shot is equivalent to the star (Michael Jordan). As Rasher and Solmes warned, their theory might not hold if the star effect dominance continued for too long and resulted in NBA games or even entire NBA seasons became boring and predictable.

Finally, while fans believed that 3-point shooting was the most important skill in the NBA, the survey respondents recommended that the 3-point line be moved further away from the basket as a way to achieve better game balance and make the game less predictable. Both of these findings were in line with Goldsberry’s (2019) analysis of the current state of the NBA game and proposed solutions.

My survey had limitations and could be improved. The statistical analysis I used was limited to basic descriptive analysis, whereas future research could include more robust and complex data collection and statistical analysis. This technique could better evaluate and predict the impact of various factors in fan engagement. Because I utilized convenience sampling, the survey may have disproportionately represented younger fans. In retrospect, I could have created a more credible data set by imposing a minimum age for respondents of 30; this would have provided a more meaningful 10-year comparison from individual respondents who would have been old enough to form a legitimate comparative judgment of the NBA a decade apart.

Future research could investigate fan responses to making the rules changes implemented to return the NBA to a more traditional style of play by testing some of these suggested rules changes, such as moving the 3-point line back in the NBA G League[9].

Analytics and the resulting reliance on the 3-point shot have transformed the NBA in terms of how the game is played, how players are valued, and in its fan appeal and engagement. Sports, and the NBA in particular, are a vital part of our culture and our economy. Maintaining robust fan engagement and growing the game of basketball is a worthy goal. This initial study has given me insights into how I would improve future research; once expanded, I hope to share future related research findings with the NBA and to inspire league leadership to seriously consider rules changes that would make the game more exciting and cultivate a higher level of fan engagement. If analytics led us to this point, then analytics should be used to inspire and guide a return to a more engaging version of the game, perhaps one closer to its founder’s original vision. James Naismith, the game’s inventor, felt that there was “no prettier sight in athletic achievement” than basketball due to the game’s unpredictability and beauty (Colas, 2017). The NBA, through thoughtful change, should strive to bring the modern game closer to its origins, to the likely satisfaction of its fans.

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[9] NBA G League is the NBA’s minor league basketball organization.

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